Highlighting Some of the Most Competitive 2024 Congressional Elections
We are just a few days away from Election Day and early voting has begun in many states. Beyond the presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and Former-President Donald Trump, the 2024 federal elections will also determine which political party will hold majority control in each chamber of Congress beginning in January 2025.
Currently, the Republican Party holds a slim majority in the U.S. House of Representatives (220 Republicans, 212 Democrats, 3 vacancies). All 435 voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives serve 2-year terms which means an election will be held for each of these seats in 2024. However, this does not mean all 435 elections are expected to be competitive. According to 270 to Win's Uncontested U.S. House Races, 24 districts, including two in Illinois, Mary Miller in IL 15 and Darin LaHood in IL 16, feature the incumbent-party facing no opposition in the general, election except for potential write-in campaigns in states where they are permitted. The general election in another six districts will feature one major party candidate against a third-party or independent candidate, and seven districts in either California, Washington, or Louisiana will feature a general election between two candidates from the same political party due to the use of blanket primaries in these states.
Moreover, many of remaining 398 U.S. House elections featuring one Democrat and one Republican are not expected to be very competitive in terms of vote totals due to many districts strongly favoring one political party over the other. There are many organizations and election researchers who assess and predict the competitiveness of congressional races, but one of the most cited is the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. The 2024 Cook Political Report House Race Ratings classifies races as being either Solid Democratic/Republican which indicates a race is not likely to be competitive at any point in the election cycle, Likely Democratic/Republican, which indicates a race is not particularly competitive at the present moment but has the potential to become more competitive, Lean Democratic/Republican, which indicates a race is competitive, but one party has an advantage, or Toss Up, which indicates a competitive race where either party has a good chance of winning the election. As of October 22, 2024, Cook Political Report rates 174 districts as Solid Democrat, 191 Solid Republican, 17 Likely Democratic, 10 Likely Republican, 11 Lean Democratic, 5 Lean Republican, and 27 Toss Up. It is the Toss Up, Lean, and Likely races that are most likely to be decisive in determining which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives.
In comparison to the U.S. House, the Democratic Party holds an even smaller majority in the U.S. Senate (45 Democrats, 49 Republicans, 4 independents all of whom are more closely aligned with the Democratic Party) with Vice President Harris serving as a tie-breaking vote when necessary. Unlike the U.S. House of Representatives, only about a third of senators, all of whom are elected for a 6-year term, are up for reelection in 2024. Of the 34 U.S. Senate elections taking place in 2024, the 2024 Cook Political Report Senate Race Ratings rates 14 Solid Democratic, 9 Solid Republican, 1 Likely Democratic, 1 Likely Republican, 2 Lean Democratic, 3 Lean Republican, and 4 Toss Up as of October 21, 2024.
This semester in PSC 407: Campaigns and Elections, political science students at UIS have been researching some of the most high-profile and competitive congressional elections taking place in 2024. Below, Gabriella Hoxie, Tim Moriarty, and TJ Nankivell, all of whom are pursuing M.A. Degrees in Political Science at UIS, share some of their research on the elections they have been following for the past several months. Gabriella Hoxie has been following the U.S. House election in Illinois 17, which is widely perceived to be the most competitive federal race taking place in Illinois in 2024, Tim Moriarty has been following Michigan’s 10th congressional district, and TJ Nankivell has been following the U.S. Senate Race taking place in Pennsylvania.
Illinois 17
By Gabriella Hoxie
In 2022, this newly-remapped district was also a hotly contested race with Congressman Sorenson beating Republican challenger Esther Joy King by just under 4 points. This district also saw split results for statewide offices on the ballot in 2022. Two statewide Democrats – Senator Tammy Duckworth and Governor J.B. Pritzker – and two statewide Republicans – Tom DeVore and Dan Brady – won this district, clearly marking its status as the primary battleground seat in Illinois.
Illinois’ 17th Congressional District is the only predicted competitive Congressional race in the state of Illinois this cycle. First-term Democratic incumbent, Eric Sorenson, is facing off against Republican challenger, Joe McGraw, for this district that encompasses northwest and central portions of the state. There was a contested Republican primary in which Joe McGraw prevailed over challenger Scott Crowl by nearly 35 points.
Prior to Congressman Sorenson’s 2022 election to Congress, he worked as a meteorologist at a local news station in Rockford. Judge Joe McGraw previously worked as a prosecutor and judge and currently lives in Rockford.
As this is a competitive seat, both candidates have been emphasizing their bipartisan, moderate approaches to public policy. Congressman Sorenson has focused his campaign on cutting the cost of healthcare and prescription medication, access to reproductive healthcare, creating jobs, and lowering the cost of living. His personal framing, specifically on social media, is not necessarily issue-specific, but more of a general focus on his connection to the community.
Judge McGraw’s most prominent issues – public safety and ethics reform – pair well with his previous experience as a prosecutor and judge. He has framed himself as tough-on-crime, a staunch supporter of law enforcement, and a fiscal watchdog that wants to end government overspending. As this district is heavily blue-collar, both candidates are seemingly vying for the labor vote by showing their support for the working class and pledging to bring more manufacturing to the region.
However, where Congressman Sorenson holds an edge, beyond his advantage as an incumbent, is in his massive lead in financing. As of October 15th, Congressman Sorenson reported raising a total of $4,569,405 while Judge Joe McGraw reported raising $1,284,588. This puts Congressman Sorenson at an almost 4:1 cash advantage in this race. With both candidates running digital ads and sending mailers, every dollar will count in the results of this race.
Michigan 10
By Tim Moriarty
In the race to represent Detroit's northern suburbs in Michigan's 10th Congressional district, incumbent John James faces a tough rematch against Democrat Carl Malinga whom he beat in 2022. James, a first-term Republican congressman, is a military veteran who led two tours in a combat zone as an aviation officer. Before serving in Congress, James was also a businessman who owned his own supply chain firm in Detroit. Malinga, who lost to James in 2022 by less than 2,000 votes, is a former U.S. Attorney, Macomb County prosecutor, and Circuit Court judge seeking to return the seat back to the Democrats for the first time since 2002.
In the 21st century, money is the key to political victory as whoever raises the most usually wins. According to OpenSecrets, James has raised $7.5 million dollars and spent $5.8 million of that total whereas Malinga has raised $2.2 million and spent $900,000. While this discrepancy may make it seem like James has a commanding lead, outside political spending has allowed Malinga to lessen his financial hole. Dark money and outside political action committees (PACs) have spent $4.7 million dollars supporting Malinga whereas outside groups have spent $2.1 million helping James. All together pro-James money has totaled $9.6 million dollars whereas pro-Malinga money has totaled $7 million dollars, making this a relatively tight race.
Per 538, there has been a dearth of public polling with the only two public polls coming during the summer: a July poll showing Malinga up 6 and an August poll showing James up 3. These contrasting poll results show that the race is close, and the lack of recent public internal polling suggests that both campaigns are seeking to use every last resource to convince voters to support them instead of measuring the mood of the electorate. With only about two weeks left in the race, expect this race to come down to the wire and for the results to not be known until after Election Day.
Pennsylvania U.S. Senate
By TJ Nankivell
The two candidates in this race are 3-term U.S. Senator Bob Casey and former Bridgewater Associates hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick. Per Casey’s Congressional website, before becoming a senator, Casey served the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania as the Auditor General for two terms and one term as the state’s Treasurer. This is McCormick’s second run for a U.S. Senate seat. Two years ago, he lost a very close Republican primary election, 950 vote difference, with over 1.3 million votes cast, to Dr. Mehmet Oz to run for that open senate seat (Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Election Results). In addition, his campaign website states that McCormick is a combat veteran and served in multiple roles in the George W. Bush administration (Meet Dave).
The reason this race is expected to be competitive is that this is a statewide Pennsylvania election. Pennsylvania is a deep purple swing state. An example of Pennsylvania’s swing state status is our state governor’s election history. PA changed the state constitution in 1968, newly allowing the governor to run for a second term, starting with the new governor elected in 1970. Looking at this electoral history on the National Governor’s Association’s website, from 1970 and the election of Democrat Milton Shapp, through to the 2014 election loss of Tom Corbett, Pennsylvania reelected every governor, to a second term, then replaced the governor with one from the opposing party, going back and forth every 8 years for decades. Our current governor is the first governor under this 1968 Constitution to be elected to succeed a governor from the same party.
Due to the lack of term limits, this senate seat hasn’t seen as much open seat competitiveness as our state governor’s position, but it has shown our swing state status well, since Senator John Heinz’s death. Democrat Harris Wofford finished the Heinz term and won one term of his own. Then, Republican Rick Santorum won two terms, and Democrat Bob Casey Jr. is now running for his 4th term.
The two candidates debated recently (Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Debate: Bob Casey & Dave McCormick). Their closing statements in the first debate seem to sum up their campaigns. McCormick used Trump-based arguments on the border and the economy, mentioned his service in Iraq, said that Casey is a career politician that is weak (which he had claimed multiple times in the debate), and made a quick anti-transgender comment about boys playing in girls’ sports and that Casey isn’t against that. Casey in his closing attacked McCormick’s hedge fund investments, also repeated that McCormick lived in Connecticut (both brought up many times during the debate), and stated that McCormick was against workers’ rights and women’s rights.
Looking at the polling data on ABC News’s 538 website, Casey has held the lead in all of the October polls for this race except one, and typically Casey’s lead is between 3 and 8 percentage points. The one poll that had McCormick in the lead, showed him with only a 1% lead. As of August 19th, their poll aggregate gives Casey the lead 48.4% to 44.1% for McCormick.
Authors:
Gabriella Hoxie, Tim Moriarty, and TJ Nankivell are pursuing M.A. degrees in Political Science at UIS.
Matthew Geras is an Assistant Professor of Political Science in the School of Politics and International Affairs at UIS.
References:
“2022 General Primary (Official Returns).” Pennsylvania Elections - Summary Results. (October 20, 2024).
“2024 CPR House Race Ratings.” 2024. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. (October 23, 2024).
“2024 CPR Senate Race Ratings.” 2024. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. (October 23, 2024).
Ballotpedia. 2024. Illinois’ 17th Congressional District.
Best, Ryan et al., ed. 2024. “Pennsylvania: U.S. Senate : 2024 Polls.” FiveThirtyEight. (October 20, 2024).
“Casey, Robert P. (Bob) Jr.” n.d. (October 20, 2024).
“Eric Sorenson for Illinois.” n.d.
Federal Election Commission. n.d. Campaign Finance Data.
“Former Governors - Pennsylvania.” 2019. National Governors Association. (October 20, 2024).
“Judge Joe McGraw for Congress.” n.d.
“Latest Polls Michigan 10.” 2024. 538..
“Latest Polls Pennsylvania.” 2024. 538.
“Map Shows Which States Offer Early Voting and Mail-in Ballots for the 2024 Election.” 2024. CBS News.
“Meet Dave.” 2024. Dave McCormick for U.S. Senate. (October 20, 2024).
“Michigan District 10 2024 Race.” 2024. OpenSecrets.